R E S E A R C H B Y D A T E
Do Financial Sector Development Affect the Growth Gains from Trade Openness?
(with N.R. Ramirez-Rondan and A. Vilchez). 2019. Review of World Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-019-00369-8.
Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?
(with J. Bluedorn and J. Decressin). 2016. International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 32, Issue 2, pp. 518-523.
From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison
(with A. Kose and P. Loungani). 2013. Pacific Economic Review, Volume 18-3, pp 370-402.
On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment
(with B. Durdu and E. Mendoza). 2012. Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32. Pages 762-80.
How do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?
(with S. Claessens and A. Kose). 2012. Journal of International Economics. Volume, 87. Pages 178-190.
The Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?
(with S. Claessens and A. Kose). 2010. Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 21, pp.247-264.
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?
(with S. Claessens and A. Kose). 2009. Economic Policy, Vol. 24, pp. 655-700.
Precautionary Demand of Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism
(with B. Durdu and E. Mendoza). 2009. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 89, Pages 194-209.
Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk-Sharing?
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2009. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 89, pp. 258-270.
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). April 2009. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 28, Pages 549-738. .
Financial Stress and Economic Activity
(with S. Claessens and A. Kose) BRSA Journal of Banking and Financial Markets, Volume 2, 11-24, 2008.
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2006. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 69 pp. 176-202.
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation
(with L. Cãtao). 2005. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 52, pp.529-54.
Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2005. IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52.
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2003. American Economic Review. P&P, Pp. 57-62.
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2003. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 50. Pp. 119-142.
Environmental Legislation and Enforcement: A Voting Model Under Asymmetric Information.
(with T. Selden). 1993. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Vol. 24. Pages 212-228.
Educacion, Capital Humano y Crecimiento Economico: El Caso de America Latina.
(with C. Calderón). 1993. Revista Economia. Volume 16. No. 31.
Macroeconomic Policy and Elections: Theories and Challenges.
1991, Estudios Economicos, El Colegio de México, Vol. 6(2), pages 173-195.
What Happens During Global Recessions?
(with A. Kose and N. Sugawara). 2019. Published in A. Kose and F. Onshorge (eds.), A Decade After the Global Recession: Lessons and Challanges for Emerging and Developing Economies. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.
Financial De-Dollarization: A Global Perspective and the Peruvian Experience
(with L. Catao). 2016. Published in G. Yamada and D. Winkelried (eds.), Politica y Estabilidad Monetaria en el Peru. Fondo Editorial de la Universidad del Pacifico.
An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise
(with E. Mendoza). 2014. Published in Fuentes, M., Raddatz C., and Reinhart, C. (eds.), Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy. Central Bank of Chile, Volume 18.
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants
(with H. Hirata, A. Kose and C. Otrok). 2013. Published in Giavazzi, F. and K. West. (eds), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012.
From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
(with P. Kanan and A. Scott). 2013. Published in Claessens, C., A. Kose, L. Laeven, and F. Valencia. (eds). Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses. IMF.
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?
(with S. Claessens and A. Kose). 2011. Published in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010. Pp. 345-350.
Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
(with B. Aruoba, F. Diebold, and A. Kose). 2011. Published in Clarida, R. and Giavazzi, F. (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010. Pp. 245-286.
Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View (with S. Claessens and A. Kose)
2011. Published in Cespedes, L., Chang, R., and Saravia, D. (eds.), Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence.
Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment: New Answers to an Old Debate
(with A. Ghosh and J. Zettelmeyer). 2010. Published in C. Wyplosz ed. “The New International Monetary System: Essays in Honor of Alexander Swoboda.” Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking.
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization
(with G. Dell’Ariccia, J. di Giovanni, A. Faria, A. Kose, P. Mauro, and J. Ostry). 2008. Discussion Paper. Published in C. Crowe, S. Johnson, J. Ostry and J. Zettelmeyer eds. “Macro Financial Linkages.”
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration
(with A. Kose and E. Prasad). 2004. Published in H. Siebert ed., Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Springer-Verlag.
Collapse and Revival: Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries
(with A. Kose). 2015.
The world is still recovering from the most recent global recession associated with the 2008–09 financial crisis and the possibility of another downturn persists as the global economy struggles to regain lost ground. But, what is a global recession? What is a global recovery? What really happens during these episodes? As the debates about the recent global recession and the subsequent recovery have clearly shown, our understanding of these questions has been very limited. This book tracks the global business cycle through the of a global recession to the renewal of recovery, drawing on four major episodes in the past half century. It defines key terms, documents the main features of a global recession and recovery, and describes the events that take place around these episodes. The book also puts the latest global recession and ongoing recovery in perspective. In addition, it analyzes the interactions between global and national business cycles.
World Economic Outlook Chapters
Are Global Imbalances at a Turning Point?
(with A. Aslam, S. Beidas-Strom, and J. Yepez). October 2014. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses
(with A. Abiad and D. Leigh). April 2010. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
(with P. Kannan and A. Scott). April 2009. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective
(with R. Cardarelli). September 2005. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
The Global House Price Boom
September 2004. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern?
May 2004. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Public Debt in Emerging Markets
(with T. Callen, X. Debrun, and J. Daniel). September 2003. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Real and Financial Effects of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles
(with T. Helbling). April 2003. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
How Worrisome are External Imbalances?
(with T. Bayoumi). October 2002. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
(with S. Sgherri). May 2002. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
How do Fluctuations in the G-7 Countries Affect Developing Countries?
October 2001. World Economic Outlook, IMF.
The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can it be Maintained?
May 2001 (with L. Cãtao and M. Hacker). World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Unpublished Working Papers
Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition: How Are They Related?
(with N.R. Ramirez-Rondan). 2019. MPRA Working Paper No. 97524.
Do Fixers Perform Worse than Non-Fixers during Global Recessions and Recoveries?
2019. MPRA Working Paper No. 91783
On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?
(with B. Durdu and E. Mendoza). 2010. IMF Working Paper No. 10/50.
An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macroeconomic Aggregates and Firm Level Data
(with E. Mendoza). 2008. NBER Working Paper 14049. (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
Asset Price Booms and Busts–Stylized Facts from the Last Three Decades of the 20th Century
(with T. Helbling). 2003. Mimeo.
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence
(with L. Cãtao). 2001. IMF Working Paper, WP/01/74.
Determinants of Dollarization: The Banking Side
(with L. Cãtao). 2000. IMF Working Paper, WP/00/146.
Mercado de Capitales y Eficiencia: Una Evaluación de las Propiedades Estadísticas del Indice General Bursátil de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima
(with J. Nagamine) 1995. GRADE, Notas para el Debate, 13.
Reorentación de la Politica Monetaria en el Perú: Avances y Problemas
(with J. Nagamine). 1993. GRADE, Notas para el Debate, 11.
El Ciclo Económico en el Perú
1993. (with C. Calderón). GRADE, Documento de Trabajo 20.
Influence activities and Economic Growth
1990. University of Western Ontario, Research Report 9006.
Macroeconomic Policy Cycles under Alternative Electoral Structures
1989. University of Western Ontario, Research Report 8905.
Materials provided are for Educational Use Only. All articles are the sole Copyright of their respective publishers.